Forecasters see record-strength El Niño developing in Pacific

Dynamical climate models indicate a roughly 90% probability of the strongest El Niño on record, with early effects already visible in altered tropical cyclone patterns and volatile U.S. temperatures.

First covered Jul 13, 2026 · 8:01 AM PT · 2 articles

Forecasters see record-strength El Niño developing in Pacific — Image via theclimatebrink.com

Coverage

8h Yale Climate Connections This could be the strongest El Niño on record — Already, tropical cyclones are peppering the Pacific and skipping the Atlantic, and U.S. temperatures are topsy-turvy.

1d The Climate Brink The Strongest El Niño Ever — With all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting event

Primary sources

journals.ametsoc.org Jcli D 23 0406.1 (journals.ametsoc.org) — cited by 2 of the outlets above

coastwatch.noaa.gov ERDDAP - Home Page

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

Related coverage

11h Climate Home News A strong El Niño spells more climate pain for the Philippines

More coverage from around the web

noaa.gov El Nino forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

severe-weather.eu Atmospheric Code Red: 2026 Super El Niño Now Trending Toward Record-Breaking Intensity » Severe Weather Europe

cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - NOAA

weather.com El Niño is here, and could become one of strongest, NOAA says

climateimpactcompany.com Possible Record Strength Oceanic El Nino in 2026 but ENSO Climate May Be Less Intense - Climate Impact Company

Discussion

Bluesky: @akshatrathi.bsky.social Akshat Rathi · 1d ago · 443 ♥ With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C).

Appeared in: 2026-07-14 (#18)

← Back to the brief