NOAA rainfall models still underestimate extreme precipitation risk in Texas

Federal precipitation data released in 2018 increased benchmark rainfall estimates by 30-40% for South Texas, yet recent flooding suggests even those updated figures understate the intensity of extreme events becoming more common in the reg

First covered Jul 17, 2026 · 4:32 PM PT · 1 article

NOAA rainfall models still underestimate extreme precipitation risk in Texas — Image via insideclimatenews.org

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2d Inside Climate News Latest Precipitation Models Still Seem to Underestimate Risk as ‘1,000-Year’ Rain Events Pummel Texas — Parts of South Texas ravaged by flooding this week have logged a steep rise in rainfall intensity over recent decades, federal data show.

Primary sources

texas2036.org 2024 Climatereport (texas2036.org)

weather.gov Technicalpaper No40 (weather.gov)

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forbes.com The Texas Hill Country Is Flooding Again — And It’s Bad

inside.nssl.noaa.gov SUDDEN DANGER: The Science and Stakes of Flash Flood Forecasting – NSSL News

nbcnews.com How a confluence of extreme weather, geography and timing created Texas' flood disaster

Appeared in: 2026-07-19 (#10) · 2026-07-20 (#12)

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NOAA rainfall models still underestimate extreme precipitation risk in Texas

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